Electoral Circumstances

Current Prediction

• Harry Reid looks to be behind in a Gravis Marketing, a political marketing agency that has taken some flack in the past for some of its results, but is still used on sites like RealClearPolitics, poll to Republicans Adam Laxalt and Brian Krolicki.

• This does not even include Nevada's Republican Governor Brian Sandoval who many thought would have the best shot at taking the seat due to polling reported by Politico last year.
• According to the political journalism organization, Politico, Governor Sandoval, a former chairman of the Nevada Gaming Commission like Reid, doesn't appear to be running though.
• Reid could also face Nevada state senate Majority Leader Michael Roberson who was not even polled, so there are a lot of things up in the air right now.
• If Sandoval decides not to run the Republican Primary will most likely be rather contested whereas if Reid does decide to run as he has stated before the Democratic Primary should be a lock.
• Another aspect to consider is the fact that in this past election Republicans won every state seat showing a trend towards Republicans.  It is important to note here that in 2016 there will be a larger voter turnout due to it being a presidential election.  This will most likely help bring out more Democrats that in 2014.
• In 2012, Obama won Nevada, but with a lower percentage than before.  Politico shows that Obama was able to win despite carrying only two counties in Nevada.

2010 Election Results

• Senate100% reporting

  	Candidate	Party	Votes	Pct.
  	Harry Reid	Dem.	362,785	50.3%	Incumbent
  	Sharron Angle	Rep.	321,361	44.5%
  	None of these candidates	—	16,197	2.2%
  	Scott Ashjian	Tea	5,811	0.8%
  	Michael Haines	Ind.	4,261	0.6%
  	Tim Fasano	I.A.P.	3,185	0.4%
  	Jesse Holland	Ind.	3,175	0.4%
  	Jeffrey Reeves	Ind.	2,510	0.3%
  	Wil Stand	Ind.	2,119	0.3%

• Official Election Results from the Clerk of the House of Representatives.
• RealClearPolitics shows that Reid trailed in the polls almost all of October to Sharon Angle and his victory was seen as a surprise.
• Politico reported that there were several reasons why Reid was able to win the 2010 election including: 
• Trusting his own polls.
• Running against specific candidates and using their mistakes against them.
• Reid and the Democrats ran ads and spoke out against Republican candidates during the primary like Sue Lowden causing problems like "Chickengate" which she never recovered from.

• This led to the more radical Tea Party candidate, Sharron Angle, being chosen.  He called Sharron Angle a "female Rand Paul" because of her more extreme stances.
• He sought votes from the opposite party.
• Angle carried a lower percentage of Republicans than Reid did Democrats.
• Reid had for years been supportive of the Hispanic vote in Nevada which finally turned out for him.
• Friends in high places assisted him.
• Obama campaigned for him early and helped fundraise.
• Senators like Dick Durbin (Illinois) and Max Baucus (Montana) sent staffers to help.
• Las Vegas Casinos and unions helped him get votes and banks even showed their support.
• Stayed close to the White House when others tried to distance themselves.
• Focused on himself and not other campaigns he could have helped.

• Harry Reid's son, Rory Reid ran for governor against Brian Sandoval often using Rory for Governor as a slogan.
• Rory distanced himself from his father because he thought he was unpopular, and Harry was fine with that, so he could focus on his own campaign.

• Governor100% reporting

  	Candidate	Party	Votes	Pct.
  	Brian Sandoval	Rep.	382,350	53.4%
  	Rory Reid	Dem.	298,171	41.6%
  	None of these candidates	—	12,231	1.7%
  	Eugene Disimone	Ind.	6,403	0.9%
  	Floyd Fitzgibbons	I.A.P.	5,049	0.7%
  	Arthur Lampitt	Lib.	4,672	0.7%
  	David Curtis	Green	4,437	0.6%
  	Aaron Honig	Ind.	3,216	0.4%

Campaign Finance

• Harry Reid spent less on his 2010 campaign than his Republican counterpart, Sharron Angle.  According to Open Secrets, a site that tracks political fundraising, Reid raised $24,815,104 while Angle raised $28,162,049.
• According to Open Secrets, from 2009-2014, Reid has raised $23,812,691.  The majority of that was raised for his 2010 campaign.
• The FEC shows that from 2013-2014 he has raised $2,596,296 in total contributions.
• Both the FEC and Open Secrets show that Reid had $1,457,274 on hand at the end of 2014.  Since then he has held two fundraisers according to Find the Best, which tracks political candidates, and began working towards 2016 a little bit.
• According to Open Secrets, most of Harry Reid's funds have come from lawyers and law firms like Weitz & Luxenberg, Simmons Law Firm, and Morgan & Morgan.  Most of the local money he takes in is from casinos and retired individuals.

Major Issues

• From Harry Reid's personal website and his Twitter account it looks like he focuses a lot on preserving Nevada's landmarks and its people.  
• He has done a lot already to protect sites like Great Basin National Park, Red Rock Canyon, and Sloan Canyon.
• Reid has currently proposed legislation for Gold Butte and Garden Valley.
• He will most likely broadcast what he has done for the preservation of Nevada so far and what he is continuing to do with Yucca Mountain and green energy.
• Reid is heavily tied to national politics because of his leadership position.  This will probably influence the issues that are focused on during the campaign.
• For instance, I think that there will be a lot of debate on immigration due to the increasing Hispanic population in Nevada and on healthcare because it was a big issue in 2010 that hasn't really been resolved completely.